Portfolio Performance
The markets swooned but if you were holding the trades from the porfolio of this blog, you would have actually beat the markets big time! Currently the Closed List is standing tall with a gain of 32.7 % and the Open List is at a gain of 79.16 %. As always, the details are tracked and displayed at the bottom of each post.
Market Commentary
Okay so the markets got clobbered. Readers of this blog may not have been completely surprised as I predicted a negative outlook in my last post the week before. Going forward it may be slightly hard to predict short term direction of markets with 100 % confidence or close to that given the uncertaintly and risks. That said, I am more inclined to continue with my neutral to bearish stance on the markets.
Looking at the three indices, the charts paint a similar picture as if there is more short term downfall in the offing even if we see a relief rally on Monday or Tuesday. S&P has couple of supports in 1400-1450 range (currently at 1458.95). Nasdaq has no good support until 2450-2500 (currently at 2562.24). Dow Jones has no good support until 1275-1280 (currently at 13265.47).
All said and done, betting everything you have on the trend of the market would be akin to catching a falling knife or a rising geyser depending on whether you are bullish or bearish. The uncertainty comes from the conflicting messages of various data points such as - you name it - volatility swings (bearish), investor sentiment (bullish), technicals (bullish and bearish), earnings strength (neutral), economy (bullish), energy production issues (bearish), housing data (bearish), lending and leverage issues (bearish). In such cases, the prudent options are - (a) you become very picky and select extremely good stocks and keep tight stops, (b) you start buying on dips your favorite stocks that have been on your radar, be strong as the markets go down further with the hope that you are picking your stocks cheap and that they will eventually rise in the months to come, and (c) stay out of buying long with a protective hedge for your current long positions.
In the weeks to come the portfolio in this blog will attempt to do a mix of the above three options.
The Rathi Portfolio Holdings
Open List
- BZH (Stock) - Sell Short - Opened on 2/14/07 at $41.54. Currently at $15.60 with 62.45% Gain
- ISRG (Option) Jan08 130 Call - Buy Long-Opened on 3/8/07 at $9.60. Current at $79.20 with 725.00% Gain
- GLD (Stock) - Buy Long - Opened on 7/10/07 at $65.61. Currently at $65.41 with 0.30% Loss
- PLUG (Stock) - Buy Long - Opened on 7/16/07 at $3.25. Currently at $2.90 with 10.77% Loss
Closed List
- CRDN (Stock) - Buy Long - Opened on 2/14/07 at $56.44. Closed on 07 at $79.37 with 40.63% Gain
- TSO (Option) Jan 50 call - Buy Long-Opened on 7/10/07 at $14.40. Closed on 7/14/07 at $12.70 with 11.81% Loss
- CTXS (Option) Jan 08 30 Call - Buy Long - Opened on 7/18/07 at $6.90. Closed on 7/23/07 at $9.20 with 33.33% Gain
Total Percentage Gain/Loss of Closed List Since Inception: 32.7% Gain
2 comments:
Love your picks. How long are you planning to hold on to GLD..market is shooting up again.
Thanks for your feedback. By the time you wrote your comment, the market was plunging again :). Regardless when I selected GLD as one of my picks my biggest reason was the technical support at 65. Since that time GLD successfully tested that support. There will be swings as you witnessed last week but overall the trend is upwards and I plan to continue to hold it. Expect at least 70 as the target in a few months or even sooner - Krishna Rathi
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