Monday, July 14, 2008

Still No Time To Be A Hero

Our strategy to remain on sidelines and short the cheaper index puts or buying index ETF shorts keeps on giving! If it wasn't for the enormous amount of government intervention in the last few days, what transpired with the banks, Freddie and Fannie came very close to getting stripped and receiving a kazillion lashes. And there are people who say we are in a free market country. What a joke! I don't know how many times I have uttered those three words in the last one week. Its not even funny anymore.

Only hindsight will tell if the intervention was a brilliant move or a kick in the face of the already fragile economy. I am one of those who believes we may benefit short term but the inevitable financial massacre has just been pushed to a later date and may contribute to an overall Black Swan incident. I hope I am wrong. But for now I am waiting for a bottom, not anticipating ..just waiting. I will start anticipating when I get my sentiment indicators high enough. With all due respects, am not stupid or stupidly rich enough to be a hero.

As I have said in the previous posts, I have taken half off my index puts or index shorts for profits and am letting the other half ride. I am STILL NOT opening any new long positions. But I will start studying and researching companies for some nice new long positions this week. The source energy aka God aka the Force aka the High aka the Feeling-You-Get-When-You-Put-A-Swab-In-Your-Itchy-Ear orchestrates such boring, mundane, drawling, slow-motion-train-wrecking and gut wrenching times for a reason - So that we can sit back on a lazy Tuesday evening and ask ourselves - while chickens are running with their heads cut off, what sweet stock/option is going to deserve my well deserved mint for the next couple of months?

Good luck
Krish

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